→ Gamma flip would shift dealers from absorption to amplification mode. Combined with already-thin liquidity (spread_ratio at 1.5x), price impact per unit of flow would increase materially. Vol-control would remain uninvolved (RV20d would still be well below 20% threshold from a 2-3% move alone), but discretionary and L1 preventive selling could accelerate as VIX likely pushes into the 20-23 range.

→ Carry trade unwind pressure would emerge. JPY-funded positions would face losses, potentially triggering margin calls on leveraged carry trades. Cross-asset contagion could transmit to equities via risk-parity and macro fund de-leveraging. Credit spreads (currently compressing) could reverse. This would bypass L1 directly into L2/L3 territory depending on the speed and magnitude of the move.

→ Persistent sub-median dark pool buying would confirm institutional distribution (selling into strength). This would signal L1 preventive de-risking is underway beneath the surface, even if indices remain supported. Expect reduced upside momentum, increased rotation, and potential for a drift lower as underlying institutional support weakens. Vol structure may remain calm (VIX sub-20) even as positioning deteriorates, creating a misleading 'calm surface' dynamic.